This division, pre meetings, is the most interesting of the four, IMO. It contains the strongest pre draft team and the one with perhaps the most interesting option available. I'll begin with the latter...
Julian--He has two stud OF's already with perhaps Braun joining the mix if he wins the toss and CarGo/Posey if he loses it. AGon in the fold and a stud 3B in Zimmerman. Hill is solid and apparently VMart has been moved. Here is the question. If he wins the toss and takes Braun, someone explain to me why he wouldn't try and move Zimmerman in order to sign Braun to a 5 year. To me this is a no brainer...so if I'm sitting out there now without a 5 year contract I'd be ringing up the Javelinas and putting a package together. Pick up a couple of other high picks for Zimmerman and perhaps draft/sign someone like Middlebrooks to a three year. Of course this isn't my team but that looks like something a savvy owner like Hoyle has already considered. Time will tell.
Flying Squirrels--hands down the strongest team heading into the meetings. Of course this doesn't always translate to success....last year as I recall the Red Sox were the odds on favorites to win it all and that whole ordeal turned into a train wreck. BTW...who won it all last year?? Rumored additions and returning players make this team look really good on paper. As always there are questions all over. Will Halladay come back? Can Willingham duplicate his huge year? Does Trout=sophomore slump? What will Haren do in Washington? What will Moustakas do?? Although it is a solid group this club may have more questions that it would really like to have. Glaring holes to me are at SS and the entire pitching staff. He mentions trading up but if he can't get into the top 4 I question why?
Arizona--this team in the past has been close but seems to not be able to make the trade to get over the top. Is this owner becoming Doyle 2.0?? This year this team is pretty thin. Four returning contracts only. The good news is three of them are studs. That is just way too many players needed to make a sincere run at anything. I would consider putting Kemp on the block, take the best offer, which will be substantial, and start rebuilding. Any stud pitcher would look good here or any other quality position player for that matter.
North Texas--rumors have NT trying to trade down or out of the first round. I'm surprised Napoli hasn't been offered around yet or maybe he has. No need for him really, he isn't a Ranger anymore. Berkman, AJ, and Profar will probably end up in NT sometime during this draft although the Miracles are strongly considering taking Profar at the end of round one tossing a 3 year on him and waiting him out. If he keeps his pick they could go a number of ways but with strong needs in the pitching department he could go that way or even select the best OF to drop to him.
By far this is the most interesting division right now for me. I see lots happening in the next week or so. I'll be shocked if not much happens. Last up will be the Texas Division where I'm afraid the defending champs will have a tough time. But I was predicted third best in the division by many last year and looked what happened.
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I think you nailed my team down pretty well. You're right, if I can't get a top pick, I'm not trading up...and yeah, there is an obvious glaring hole at SS...as I don't have one under contract. :)The West will be fun as always.
ReplyDeleteI am always open to discussing my players if someone is interested, but based on an overall lack of depth and talent at 3B I don't necessarily think it's in my best interest to trade Zimmerman to "make room" for Braun.
ReplyDeleteIf I even get that pick, which isn't a guarantee, I think my team is better with Zimmerman/Braun/Bautista/Gonzalez/Gordon/Aybar/Hill than it would be replacing Zimmerman with Middlebrooks. At this point I think I'd rather have Zimmerman for two years and Braun for four than Braun for five and 2-3 years of Middlebrooks (I wouldn't give Middlerooks a 3-year contract).
There is also the issue of value. Because Zim has two years left on his contract and can't be extended, I don't see many owners parting with a first round pick for him - certainly not an early enough first to replace him with Wright or Ramirez. I think I get more value out of keeping him for two more years than trading him just to squeeze an extra year out of Braun. I could be wrong, but that's my assessment of the situation.
Other than 2009 when he had a breakout season and everyone predicted multiple MVP's for him Zimmerman has been really good, but only when he has been on the field. I maintain that I would prefer 5 years of Braun and 4 years of Middlebrooks (if you could get him early second and definitely worth a 3 year) instead of 2 years of Zimmerman and 4 years of Braun. I predict that Middlebrooks' numbers over the next two seasons will be as good as or better than Zimmermans. Just my opinion of course.
ReplyDeleteI guess I'm not comfortable giving Middlebrooks a 3-year contract based on 265 injury-riddled AB's. I think teams were catching up to him when he went down and he's going to have some major problems with strike outs this season. My guess is he settles into being a .250-.260 hitter with high strike out totals (70K's in 265 AB's) and decent power totals. Between the adjustments he'll need to make and the lack of help he'll have in the Boston lineup this season, I think he's a year or two away from being a 3-year type of player. And he's already shown a propensity for getting hurt, which doesn't make him any more durable than Zimmerman. My guess is Zim outperforms Middlebrooks over the life of his remaining two years. But again, that's just my opinion.
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