Friday, February 24, 2012

Division Predictions and Playoff Pairings.

EASTERN DIVISION

1. Rochester Red Sox*****
2. Oviedo Knights
3. Atlantic Surge
4. Dallas Redbirds

GREAT LAKES DIVISION

1. Olivet Killer Eagles*****
2. Gaylord Dingers
3. Mid Michigan Tigers
4. Charlotte Orios

TEXAS DIVISION

1. South Texas Heat*****
2. Michigan Miracles*****
3. Hackensack Bulls*****
4. San Antonio Fire Ants

WESTERN DIVISION

1. Arizona Desert Swarm*****
2. Julian Javelina
3. North Texas Rangers
4. Flying Squirrels of Springfield

First Round Playoffs...

Arizona will battle Hackensack for the right to play the Rochester in the semi's

Michigan will square off with Olivet and the winner will advance to play South Texes in the other semi's.

It's going to be a great season and for those who end up in the lottery you have Braun, CarGo, Cabrera and perhaps Verlander to choose from. I suspect if Keith or Chris end up in the lottery Verlander will be a possible choice. Lot's can happen between now and then and after all that's why they play the games. Best of luck to all and I look forward to seeing everyones predictions.

Thursday, February 23, 2012

Pre-Season Power Rankings (1/2)

Up until this point...

#16--Charlotte Orios
#15--Mid-Michigan Tigers
#14--Flying Squirrels of Springfield
#13--San Antonio Fire Ants
#12--North Texas Rangers
#11--Atlantic Surge
#10--Dallas Redbirds
#09--Julian Javelina
#08--Gaylord Dingers
#07--Oviedo Knights
#06--Olivet Killer Eagles
#05--Hackensack Bulls
#04-- Arizona Desert Swarm
#03--Michigan Miracles

At number 2-----Rochester Red Sox

Above Average Categories---HR's, SB, ERA, K's, Saves, WHIP

Below Average Categories---None

The Red Sox made a strong run at the title in 2011 and will be right in the thick of things again in 2012. Big time HR power with Reynolds, Morse and CarGo. all should go yard 30+ times this season. A big chance was taken in the first round with Desmond Jennings being selected there. 15 HR and 55 SB are certainly possible. Lets just hope he gets off to a solid start. Another questionable pick was selecting Josh Johnson as high as he did. All indications are Johnson is ready to toe the rubber 30+ times...but who knows. That was a bad injury. Kershaw/Haren/Scherzer can certainly hold down the fort in case Johnson isn't quite up to snuff. Two returning closers in Kimbrel and Axford are joined by Venters. Let's see how the ATL duo fare after being used so heavily last year.

THAT BRINGS US TO THE LAST TEAM ON OUR LIST....

At number 1-----South Texas Heat

Above Average Categories---Walks, HR's, R, SB, K's, Saves

Below Average Categories---Average

Although I have Bergs team below average in Average the rest of his rankings are excellent. He is in the top 5 in every other category except Holds and ERA. Top to bottom just an outstanding team. With the exception of Bourn every starter has the potential to hit 20+ HR's and a handful probably 30+. Bourn may not go yard but he will chip in 50+ SB in 2012. Like I said pretty strong. Like the Miracles he doesn't have top names in starters but Shields/Marcum/Lester and the youngster Matt Moore are all terrific. My only question is can they all hold up to the pressure that is the AL East. Lot of offense in that division. Good closers in Putz and Bergs man crush Rafael Betancourt and the MRP are solid as well. This will be a helluva shootout most weeks in the Texas Division.

Wednesday, February 22, 2012

Pre-Season Power Rankings (3/4)

Up until this point...

#16--Charlotte Orios
#15--Mid-Michigan Tigers
#14--Flying Squirrels of Springfield
#13--San Antonio Fire Ants
#12--North Texas Rangers
#11--Atlantic Surge
#10--Dallas Redbirds
#09--Julian Javelina
#08--Gaylord Dingers
#07--Oviedo Knights
#06--Olivet Killer Eagles
#05--Hackensack Bulls

At number 4-----Arizona Desert Swarm

Above Average Categories---Average, R, ERA, WHIP, W's
Below Average Categories---None

The fact that the Swarm doesn't come close to the bottom in any categories is the biggest reason he is slotted above the Bulls and Eagles. These three teams are fairly close in rank in my opinion. The defending champions are led by Kemp and Longoria. Not too shabby while the starting pitchers are led by Lee/Felix and Carpenter. Again...top end players abound here. The offense will have to be picked up by the likes of Avila, Sanchez, Ackley, Gordon. All young good players who will need to improve for the Swarm to again rise to the top of the league. The rest of the starters and relievers are good and Madson is very good and may be pitching with quite the chip on his shoulder this year. Initially it looks as though the Swarm will ride this cast of pitchers exclusively since the bench has only Vogelsong.

At number 3-----Michigan Miracles

Above Average Categories---Walks, RBI's, ERA, Saves, WHIP
Below Average Categories---None

I have always tried to field a balanced team but have always fallen short along the way. This is another balanced team led by Prince Fielder and a very strong supporting cast of Pence/Victorino/Zobrist/Choo. There will be a strong balance along all offensive categories and I should compete is all of them throughout the season. My pitching is anchored by the relief corp. Rivera/Papelbon/Bell/Romo/Marshall together form I believe the strongest set of relief pitchers in the league. The starters are led by Matt Cain and are made up of other pitchers that lack the big name but have all the qualities you want. They all strikeout their share and have very solid ERA's and WHIPS. They can't compete name wise with the Bulls but will match up with them much of the time.

Tuesday, February 21, 2012

Pre-Season Power Rankings (5/6)

Up until this point...

#16--Charlotte Orios
#15--Mid-Michigan Tigers
#14--Flying Squirrels of Springfield
#13--San Antonio Fire Ants
#12--North Texas Rangers
#11--Atlantic Surge
#10--Dallas Redbirds
#09--Julian Javelia
#08--Gaylord Dingers
#07--Oviedo Knights

We now leave the chop steak portion of the league and enter into the prime red meat section of eMLB.

At number 6-----Olivet Killer Eagles

Above Average Categories---Walks, HR's, SB's, Holds, Strikeouts
Below Average Categories---Saves

Larry had taken on a win in 2012 mentality early on and his first three picks in the draft reflected that. Bautisa/HanRam/Gallardo are three top quality players. Larry I'm sure is expectation a big bounce back season from Ramirez. Olivet will need big bounce back season from Morales/HanRam/Heyward in order to not only take the Great Lakes crown but to progress very far through the playoffs. The pitching is where the questions will come up. Punting saves always puts you in a hole from the outset and his starters and MRP may not be enough many weeks to squeak out wins against the better teams. The good news for Larry is the better teams are not in his division.

At number 5-----Hackensack Bulls

Above Average Categories---Average, HR's, RBI's, ERA, K's, Saves, Wins
Below Average Categories---Walks, SB, Holds

Based on the current roster you can almost conclude that the Bulls are punting Holds and Stolen Bases every week. This may well be his downfall when facing the Miracles and Heat three times each this year. On the flip side, nobody will look forward to facing CC/Freak/Strasburg/Darvish once or sometimes twice in week. That will be difficult. A couple of youngsters Ben drafted will help him this year and for years to come, specifically Mike Stanton and Eric Hosmer. This team has plenty of high octane hitting and pitching and it will be fun to see how this Texas Division plays out this year. I believe it will be the most competitive division in the league along with being the most powerful.

Monday, February 20, 2012

Pre-Season Power Rankings (7/8)

Up until this point...

#16--Charlotte Orios
#15--Mid-Michigan Tigers
#14--Flying Squirrels of Springfield
#13--San Antonio Fire Ants
#12--North Texas Rangers
#11--Atlantic Surge
#10--Dallas Redbirds
#09--Julian Javelin

At number 8-----Gaylord Dingers

Above Average Categories---Average, RBI, R, Holds
Below Average Categories---ERA, WHIP, Wins

A perennial stud in the Great Lakes Division may play second fiddle to Olivet in 2012. Nice up front power with Pujols and Ortiz but will need bounce back seasons from Weeks and Crawford to make any inroads in the division. OF will be a bit shaky but the infield will carry the team. The pitching is where the team seems to fall a bit short. Other than Greinke the rest of the starters are forgettable. The relievers on the other hand are pretty decent as long as your expectations are not too high. Andrew Bailey seems to be the only solid closer which begs the question why have him? The good news for Wagner is Mid Michigan and Charlotte are in the division with him. Three matches with each of them will net Gaylord close to 50 wins. It's the non division matches that will determine the winner of this division.

At number 7-----Oviedo Knights

Above Average Categories---BB, RBI, Runs, WHIP
Below Average Categories---SB

As usual Reynolds will field a very competitive team. The offense is filled with solid players who will all probably hit anywhere between 15-30 HR each although only Konerko and Hart will push the 30 mark. No real high averages and only a couple of real stolen base threats but overall pretty good. Pitching is where this Reynolds team differs from past years. This starting group led by Hamels, Beckett and Morrow is very good and the relief staff is solid if unspectacular. Look for Reynolds to be looking up at Rochester most of the season but a second place finish is where he should end up.

Sunday, February 19, 2012

Pre-Season Power Rankings (9/10)

Up until this point...

#16--Charlotte Orios
#15--Mid-Michigan Tigers
#14--Flying Squirrels of Springfield
#13--San Antonio Fire Ants
#12--North Texas Rangers
#11--Atlantic Surge

At number 10-----Dallas Redbirds

Above Average Categories---Average, K's, Wins
Below Average Categories---Walks, HR, RBI's, Saves

In typical Redbird fashion, Doyle has put together a solid starting staff anchored by Price/Garza. Pineda will be a nice pick and will certainly get his share of wins in NY but pitching in the AL East may take its toll on the youngster later in the year. Too many offensive question marks will make it difficult to be anything but a consolation team this year and if Reyes goes down things become more difficult. Tex will give him solid power numbers but his average is continuing to slide down. Ellsbury will probably not duplicate last years numbers and who knows what if anything he will get from Morneau. Lot's of ifs here.

At number 9-----Julian Javelina

Above Average Categories---SB, Holds
Below Average Categories---HR's, RBI's, Saves

You can't argue with Hoyle's #1 pick of Adrian Gonzalez. Having him in my lineup last year you always wondered if he was really having a good year because he never seemed to have many if any great weeks, unlike Tulo for example who literally carries a team some weeks. At the end of the year AGon's number will be as good as anyones. He is just rather vanilla. Some nice speed is there with Crisp/Ichiro and Aybar (I liked that pick) but they are all rather one dimensional. Can Berkman repeat 2011, can Gordon improve and Wilson Ramos in an early round I didn't quite see it. This is another team that I will be interested to see when he puts his contracts.

My rankings had distinct gaps in the levels. Teams 13-16 were well below everyone else. Teams 8-12 were in the next group. Teams 4-7 were in the tier just below the top three teams. So tomorrow we get into the second best group of teams with picks seven and eight. Until then.....

Saturday, February 18, 2012

Pre-Season Power Rankings (11/12)

Up until this point...

#16--Charlotte Orios
#15--Mid-Michigan Tigers
#14--Flying Squirrels of Springfield
#13--San Antonio Fire Ants

At number 12-----North Texas Rangers

Above Average Categories---Avg, SB, Holds
Below Average Categories---RBI, Runs, K's

Leave it to Adrian to go and get his Rangers. He has to be happy with who he was able to acquire this year. The problem is after he makes his first 2/3 picks we don't see him for about a half a dozen rounds. That makes for a big drop in talent. Lots of big thump...Napoli/Votto/Kinsler/Cruz/Braun but then you have Andrus/de Aza/Revere/Rodriguez who will give you very little in terms of power. Lots of SB's in this lineup as well. Pitching wise you have Halladay, Papa Grande and a bunch of other guys that you wish were on the opposing team when you play them. The Rangers will have some good weeks when all the real Rangers are clicking and will have some dismal weeks as well.

At number 13-----Atlantic Surge

Above Average Categories---WHIP
Below Average Categories---Average, HR, R

Recently noticed that the Surge management was looking to deal pitching in order to upgrade a very average offense. OK....below average offense. He could have made I'll bet a dozen trades during the meetings for a couple of his starters. As it is the starters will have to carry this team. The down side is I have to believe that his big three of Verlander/Hudson/Kennedy will probably not all be able to duplicate 2011. Having to have his offense carry him in any given week will be difficult. Other than first round pick Justin Upton there are not many sure things. Good things, Davis--if he comes back from injury, Trumbo--does he find a position, LoMo, BJ Upton. Nothing that will strike fear into opposing teams.

Tomorrow we break into the top 10

Friday, February 17, 2012

Pre-Season Power Rankings (13/14)

Up until this point...

#16--Charlotte Orios
#15--Mid-Michigan Tigers

At number 14-----Flying Squirrels of Springfield

Above Average Categories---HR's
Below Average Categories---Avg, BB, R, SB, ERA, WHIP

Squirrels went young and went young early. Lawrie/Freeman/Trout would be a great haul if if was 2015...but it isn't. Wainwright needs to be 100% for this team to get out of the basement in their division. Marmol finding the plate on occasion wouldn't hurt either. Since I'm going to follow the Astro's a bit closer this year I'm hoping Martinez has a bit of a breakout year. Word has it that Robinson Cano has already asked to be traded to a contender.

At number 13-----San Antonio Fire Ants

Above Average Categories---Holds
Below Average Categories---BB, HR, R, K's, Saves

Projected to finish last in the Texas Division this Fire Ant team has less sting to it than actual fire ants. Sankey didn't have a lot to begin the Winter Meetings but some trades gave him some decent players. It cut down on his draft picks and the players he did draft, well let's just say it will be interesting to see who he contracts. It will be a long year for the Aint's having to face the rest of the Texas Division who I see as all being top 5 teams in the league this season. Don't worry though Keith I'll occasionally buy you a beer, which of course is a lot more than Berg will do.

Tomorrow, #11 and #12...

Thursday, February 16, 2012

Miracle Post Draft and Pre-Season Power Rankings

The Michigan Miracles went into the 2012 draft with a plan in mind for his team. With only two closers and a handful of position players under contract going into the winter meetings the Miracles had their work cut out for them after an extremely disappointing 2011 campaign. The first part of the revamped team came by trading away their lottery pick for four years of Prince Fielder. Assorted other moves and the Miracles were ready for the draft. The main plan was to draft a solid OF with their first pick and then take the next best hitter with their second pick. That second pick turned into Matt Cain. Cain being available was totally unexpected at the end of the second round and taking him was necessary. That pick was followed by two more SP's and a third closer in Jonathan Papelbon after which the rest of the lineup was filled out. For the most part the Miracle braintrust was happy with their picks but would have liked one more impact bat. That being said the Miracles feel that they will be very competitive in the Texas Division this year and with a little bit of good fortune can make their first appearance in the Championship Playoffs. Big goal considering the track record of the team the past few seasons.


GM Chris Renner has ranked the 16 teams based on how he feels they stack up at this point of the year. Renner will release his rankings two at a time beginning here.....

At number 16-----Charlotte Orios

Above Average Categories---None
Below Average Categories---Average, RBI, ERA, Strikeouts, WHIP, Wins

A questionable draft led the Orios to this position. First four picks of Beltre/Mauer/Quentin/Beckett were ok/way early/OMG/ok. Overreach for Bryce Harper and an extremely weak set of starting pitchers pretty much assure the Orios of a long season.

At number 15-----Mid-Michigan Tigers

Above Average Categories---None
Below Average Categories---SB, ERA, Holds, Strikeout, Wins

The Tigers may have been better served in trading Miguel Cabrera for perhaps a player and a couple of picks considering the chances of them competing in 2012 are slim at best. As with the Orios the top portion of the draft after Jay Bruce was ok. Overpaid for Howie Kendrick to start at 2B and also starting Escobar and McGehee you get an idea that the offense will be average at best...and that is with Cabby. The pitching has a lot of high 3 and 4+ ERA's and most weeks it will not be pretty. With Charlotte in the same division at least they may not finish last. Good news is, they may get Miguel Cabrera back next year.

A quick note--above average for me would be in the top 4 teams in a category and below average would be in the bottom 4 teams in a given category. Tomorrow I will round out the potential lottery teams of 2013.